Should you even trade?

How do you know if you should trade?

Or do anything, really? Professional hula-hooping, Latin dance, food TikToks?

Here’s the deal.

It should feel like play to you but look like work to other people.

And my life right now sure feels like play.

I was on a weekly team meeting with my company leadership group yesterday, and everyone was talking about their weekends.

My weekend - I spent brainstorming ideas to improve the Crypto Salary System.

10 hours on Saturday, and about the same on Sunday, shoehorning 18 months worth of data into python and fucking with it.

I had trouble sleeping Sunday night I was so excited.

What’s interesting is a quant buddy of mine and I have been swapping ideas… and he was like a dog with a bone too.

He’s ported our whole system rules into Python (that’s beyond my pay grade I’m a terrible programmer)

Things I’ve been testing…

• Does market regime make a difference? (it does but not how you think)

• Whether super-extreme funding rates (like you get on the worst shitcoins) are an advantage or disadvantage

• Are the top 20 altcoins are a better edge than the little ones

I think we are on the cusp of some major improvements in both edge and ease of trading… just look at one of the equity curves we popped out. (18 months of 15 minute trade data is statistically significant)

I can’t wait to share it with you all.

Anyway… Bitcoin appears to be falling off the cliff I’ve been warning you about for weeks.

The upside move was perfectly done to convince everyone the waters were safe again…

We now have a failed upside breakout, which means the bulk of traders were positioned wrong-way. 

Sucks for them, but it’s all in the game, yo.

There’s a couple of other subtle points you might not have noticed.

We have a sneaky retest of the highs…

And a “follow through bar” - open at the highs, close at the lows, expanded range. Which means that the bears controlled the open AND the close and increased their dominance.

Looks to me like we have a decent shot at crashing, ripping the band-aid off, and getting us back into bull mode after the fools get rekt.

I’ll keep you informed

Scott